2025 Ocean Freight Forecast Is Looking Fuzzy

Usually at this time, we have a reasonable idea on how ocean freight is likely to pan out in the first few months of the new year. Although the Red Sea diversions this year, and the pandemic in 2020, were extreme and unforeseen exceptions.

Making any kind of forecast for 2025 is extremely difficult, with some key factors already clouding the view for early next year.

Trump Presidency

Donald Trump is due to take over as US president on January 20th. During his campaign he has regularly suggested he would impose import tariffs of 60% on China and 10-20% on the rest of the world. If he follows through with these threats, and trade drops significantly on the world's largest ocean freight market, this could have a far reaching impact on global ocean freight services, not just transpacific routes.

Red Sea Diversions

If the Houthi situation improves in the Red Sea, then carriers would be able to return to the shorter route safely, but there is a suggestion they may not want to. The longer transits led to a capacity squeeze and higher rates, and now the global fleet is 10% bigger than it was this time last year. Returning to the Red Sea route could lead to over-capacity, and there is another 7.5m teu of new build ships currently on order.

Carrier Alliances

The biggest shake up of ocean freight carrier alliances in over a decade is set to be finalised in February. The 2M Alliance comes to an official end for the world's two biggest carriers and THE Alliance loses its largest member to the newly formed Gemini Cooperation. We are yet to see what impact these new partnerships bring to the market when they become fully operational.

Therefore, until we get some clarity regarding the above, the way ahead for ocean freight is a little fuzzy right now.

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